Nevada Economy
Here’s the first quarter “Nevada Economy In Brief” published by the Nevada Employment Security Department.
Economy »
Local Governments Exaggerate Growth
New census data says Southern Nevada local governments have exaggerated their growth to the tune of about three years worth of our current growth rate.
The Las Vegas Review Journal reports the story…
The Census Bureau says the Metro area hit 1.866-million last June 30, vs. local government estimates (passed up to the State Demographer before becoming “official”) that had us at just under 2-million. The difference is more than six percent, equal to three years of our current pace of 2% annual growth.
Cities and Counties in Nevada are incented to exaggerate growth because each jurisdiction’s population is a primary factor in determining how much of the state’s “Consolidated Tax Distribution” they get.
CTX, as it is known in government finance circles, is a complex formula that divvies up a group of state taxes including the car registration tax, liquor taxes, and cigarette taxes.
If Henderson, for example, has more people than North Las Vegas, then Henderson gets a bigger piece of the pie and North Las Vegas gets a smaller piece of the pie. As a result, all local governments exaggerate. Every ten years, they have to drop down to the official census count.
The unfortunate side effect of exaggerating growth is that anti-family lawmakers point to the exaggerated population counts and claim they need to raise taxes on existing Nevada families in order to provide government services to pretend people.
More Private Sector Job Losses
Two more Nevada businesses closed down yesterday… Desert Dodge, Security Bank. Yet Legislative leaders still want to raise taxes.
Nevada Economy
Here’s the fourth quarter 2008 “Nevada Economy In Brief” published by the Nevada Employment Security Department.
State Archivist Departs Urging Tax Shift From Tourists To Residents
Nevada’s State Archivist Guy Rocha made the front page of the newspaper with news of his retirement. He offered, in addition to his usual ability to fascinate with his command of Nevada history, some political views. For example:
“I find it disturbing this state that has essentially been my life is, in my opinion, on the brink of disaster. You can’t cut 34 percent or more without devastating state government”… Rocha fears legislators in the coming session will cut state spending so severely that it might take decades for his and other agencies to recover.
This is a little melodramatic. The latest estimates of Nevada’s tax revenue for the next two years is that state tax revenues will be about this same for the two years starting July 1, 2007 as it was for the two years starting July 1, 2005, and that it will be about the same for the two years starting July 1, 2009. Our flat revenue is much higher than revenue was for the two years starting July 1, 2003, and that number was swollen with the largest tax hikes in many decades passed by the 2003 Legislature. Later, Rocha notes he was a history major.
Rocha parts with this:
Rocha also criticized the state’s tax structure, saying it relies too much on tourist-generated revenues and leads to wild swings in the state’s financial health.
“We need a 21st-century Nevada, and it can’t rely on tourism to keep driving the engine,” Rocha said. “Tourism will no longer be able to sustain state government unless people are satisfied with a government so small it can’t do very much at all.”
All the available evidence indicates that our ability to export taxes to visitors has led to greater tax structure stability for Nevada, rather than wild swings. The current economic downturn (the private sector is down and losing jobs while the public sector is flat and not losing jobs) started with the “locals” economy of residential construction, and for many months tourism continued to do well, and the 2001 downturn was much less severe in Nevada than most states due to how quickly tourism rebounded.
Nevada Population Growth Slows
Although you’ll still hear about how our top-ranked population growth requires more and more government, Nevada’s growth has slowed.
New Census Bureau estimates say seven states have growth rates faster than Nevada’s.
